Indiana's jobless rate drops to 9.9 percent

DEANNA MARTIN,Associated Press Writer

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David Dallecarbonare, 42 of Franklin, Ind, helps out Doug Ayers with the charity of a dollar while wearing a sandwich board titled "Hire Me" in hopes of creating contacts to help himself find a job, Friday, March 19, 2009, in Indianapolis. (AP Photo/The Indianapolis Star, Matt Detrich)

By Beth Boehne

Story Created: Sep 18, 2009 at 9:44 AM EST

Story Updated: Sep 18, 2009 at 1:10 PM EST

INDIANAPOLIS (AP) — Indiana's unemployment rate dropped to 9.9 percent in August, but officials said it is too early to tell whether the decline marked the beginning of a long-awaited recovery.

Numbers released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics show Indiana's jobless rate fell from 10.6 percent in July, putting it among just four states with measurable rate decreases over the month. More than 307,000 Indiana residents were looking for work in August, down from 332,000 in July.

"I don't know that people should break open the Champagne bottle at this point, but maybe buy a beer this weekend," said Carol Rogers, deputy director of the Indiana Business Research Center.

The August unemployment rate dropped as Indiana recorded fewer people working and a smaller labor force. That's a sign that people are giving up their job searches, retiring early, moving or otherwise leaving the work force, Rogers said.

"There is some small bit of light occurring there (in August numbers), but it's being overshadowed by people leaving the labor force," she said. "People have stopped looking."

The three other states with the largest drops in their monthly unemployment rates — Colorado, Kansas and Virginia — also experienced similar trends. None actually added any jobs.

The Indiana Department of Workforce Development said it's too early to say whether the decline is just a blip. Agency Commissioner Teresa Voors said key factors used to determine employment numbers appear to contradict each other, so it will be difficult to determine the significance of August figures until more data arrives.

"The next few months should provide evidence of a trend or a one-month survey anomaly," Voors said.

The Indiana Business Research Center, in fact, predicts that the state's unemployment rate could hit 11 percent before beginning a more permanent downward trend.

Elkhart County in northern Indiana, which has been hit hard by the collapse of recreational vehicle manufacturing, had the state's highest county jobless rate at 16 percent. That continued a steady decline in the county unemployment rate since its recent peak in March of 18.8 percent. County-level data is not seasonally adjusted as the statewide rate is.

Indiana's rate is below that of its neighbors. The August rate in Michigan was 15.2 percent, compared to 11.1 percent in Kentucky, 10.8 percent in Ohio and 10 percent in Illinois.

Indiana will get its next peek at the state's unemployment situation on Oct. 21, when September jobless numbers are released.

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