Iowa caucus results could play role in Michigan primary

by Troy Kehoe (tkehoe@wsbt.com)

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Campaign '08

By Jim Pinkerton

BERRIEN COUNTY — Thursday's caucus results in Iowa could play a role when Michigan voters head to the polls in less than two weeks. It could also change how those votes are viewed by both national political parties.

CBS News projections show Illinois Senator Barack Obama capturing Iowa's Democratic nomination and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee capturing Iowa's Republican nomination.

Next up for the candidates is New Hampshire on Tuesday, then Florida and Michigan a week later.

Both Florida and Michigan moved their primary elections up by nearly a month, and the Democratic Party stripped the states of their convention delegates. Shortly after that, four Democratic candidates dropped out in the two states. But now, some say the results in Iowa and New Hampshire could mean at least some of Michigan's voice will be heard after all.

Nervous faces told the story in Iowa Thursday night. But this year there are new frown lines -- thanks to Florida and Michigan. Experts say both could be "make or break" states for Republican front runners.

"Enough voter turnout in Michigan could swing the momentum for any of them," said St. Mary's College Political Science Professor Sean Savage. "Especially Mike Huckabee and John McCain."

But for Democrats, Michigan has been a much different story.

Big names like John Edwards, Barack Obama, Bill Richardson and Joe Biden are noticeably absent from Michigan's ballot. So what happens if one of them wins early on? Would Michigan's delegates be able to vote for the candidate voters really want?

The answer is fuzzy. There is a spot on the state's Democratic primary ballot for a write in vote. But that doesn't necessarily mean the candidate you write in will get your vote.

"In Michigan you have to file paperwork with the Secretary of State's office prior to Election Day to be an official write in candidate," said Berrien County Clerk Louise Stein. "And that deadline is [Friday] at 4 p.m. "If you write in a candidate's name such as Barack Obama, that vote is not going to count, because he has chosen to not be on the ballot, nor does he want to be a write in candidate."

So far none of the four candidates who dropped their names have filed that paperwork. So unless the remaining four candidates -- Dennis Kucinich, Hilary Clinton, Chris Dodd or Mike Gravel -- runs away with the vote in Iowa or New Hampshire, some say a Democratic vote in Michigan won't likely matter.

"It doesn't matter," said Cass County Democratic Party Chairman David Taylor. "But the real point is, it has never mattered!"

But Professor Savage says that's not necessarily true, because there is a space for voters to simply vote "Democratic."

"Then I think you could see more of an interest in voting in the Michigan primary, and therefore more of a demand that the Democratic National Committee not punish Michigan by depriving it of its delegates to the national convention," he said.

Whatever happens, both sides agree that Michigan's voice will be heard. The question is, who will be listening?

"In the past we've had no voice whatsoever," said Taylor. "At least we're making some noise. By 2012, we will be a factor. And this is a step in the right direction."

Indiana voters won't head to the polls until May. By then, it's very likely we'll already know who the presumptive nominees are from both parties. But they won't be "officially" nominated until the parties hold their national conventions at the end of August.

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