How much do political polls really mean?

by Sarah Rice (srice@wsbt.com)

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McCain and Obama

New presidential polls are being released every day, but experts say historically these polls have not always indicated the winner. (WSBT photo)

By WSBT News1

SOUTH BEND -- With the November election less than three weeks away, pollsters are working overtime. Every day, new polls are showing which candidate is ahead and by how much. But experts say there are a lot of things to consider every time a new poll is released.

From newspapers to networks, they're everywhere.

"It seems pretty incessant," said Teresa Sullivan.

"It's ridiculous information, it's so repetitive," added Ken Mills.

National election polls are being released every day. But political columnist Jack Colwell reminds people that polls are not predictions.

"A poll is only a snapshot for the time when it's taken," Colwell explained.

A good example would be the financial fallout on Wall Street.

"A poll taken before, say, the economic collapse that we've seen might not mean much of anything. Polls taken afterward would be a better reflection of what's going on at the present time," said Colwell.

Many national polls currently show Barack Obama topping rival John McCain. A recent CBS News / New York Times poll showed the senator up by 14 points.

While national polls have meaning, Colwell says it's important to look at states individually.

"That doesn't necessarily mean that he's going to be ahead in the states that are real battlegrounds and that will determine the winner in the electoral college," said Colwell.

Colwell says voters should also consider the margin of error. A smaller sample will most likely have a larger margin of error.

"If it's a poll that's has a margin for error of six, seven percent it's probably not something you want to pay a lot of attention to," said Colwell.

But some voters are waiting until Election Day to pay attention.

"It's a landslide of information that doesn't mean anything to me," said Mills.

"Some of them lean to the left. Some lean to the right. You don't know if you're getting the truth or not from a poll," said Hal Finkle.

Experts say most reputable pollsters try to have a fair sample, meaning they have a mix of gender, age, and economic status.

For more election headlines and voter resources, go to WSBT.com's Campaign ‘08 section.

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