Poll: Presidential race appears to be toss-up in Indiana

by Jim Pinkerton (jmpinkerton@wsbt.com)

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Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., and Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., shake hands before the start of the presidential debate Wednesday, Oct. 15, 2008, at Hofstra University in Hempstead, N.Y. (AP Photo/Gary Hershorn, Pool)

By Jim Pinkerton

Story Created: Oct 28, 2008 at 1:27 PM EST

Story Updated: Nov 3, 2008 at 11:47 PM EST

SOUTH BEND — The presidential candidates are working hard to court voters in potential swing states. And it looks like Indiana could go for a Democrat for the first time since 1964.

Just a month ago, John McCain has a slight lead in Indiana. But the results from our exclusive WSBT News / South Bend Tribune poll taken October 23-25 shows that has now flip-flopped in Barack Obama's favor.

"For the first time in a general election for president, we see Indiana as a toss up state, a battleground state," said Sean Savage, a political science professor at Saint Mary's College.

The latest WSBT News / South Bend Tribune poll shows John McCain and Barack Obama in a virtual tie. Since our last poll in September, the number of undecided voters has dropped to just two percent.

"People are paying attention, they have made up their minds and they are willing to state an opinion," said political science professor Darren Davis of Notre Dame.

As in our past poll, issues surrounding the economy are a top concern for 75 percent of those we questioned. Savage says what Indiana voters decide will send a definite message.

"If people are upset and anxious about the economy, a presidential election is just like a referendum question. It's a way of saying yes or no on whether the country is headed in the right direction," he said.

While Obama has the support of black voters in the state, it's the white vote that some political experts will be watching closely. We asked people if they would vote for a black president. While 88 percent said they would, Davis isn't so sure those numbers will hold up.

He says some people will often respond how they think they should — not how they'll actually vote.

"Someone asked that question today can answer it based on how they truly feel about a black president or they can answer it based on their self internalization of equality and equal opportunity," Davis said.

This phenomenon is also known as the Bradley Effect. Back in the 1980s, Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley was leading in the polls when he ran for governor, but lost big on election night.

Savage said the few undecided voters may help McCain. In the past, those who've waited until the last minute to make up their minds favor the Republicans.

Another thing that could come into play with this survey is cell phones. A lot of younger people use those instead of land lines. Davis says that vote may be under-represented in the polls. That could end up helping Obama.

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