Oil's fall from record may not deflate groceries

By ELLEN SIMON, AP Business Writer

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By Beth Boehne

Q: How will recent declines in the price of oil affect how much I pay for everyday products?

A: Inflation is running at its fastest pace in 17 years in large part due to soaring energy prices. But don't expect broad prices to fall in tandem with oil now that it's retreating. In fact, recent price hikes for everything from salad dressing to trash bags to cat litter could stick.

That's because oil's increase has been so dramatic that many prices — including gas — haven't kept pace. Even some companies that have raised prices in the last year still have lower profit margins.

Take General Mills Inc., which makes Chex, Cheerios and Pillsbury. The company said in its annual report that despite price increases for baked goods and the food it sells to cafeterias and restaurants, its profit margin declined by almost half a percent. If fuel prices drop, that might do nothing more than restore its old profit margin.

The same is true for gasoline refiners. While oil prices doubled in the last year, gasoline prices increased only about 38 percent.

The relationship between oil and gasoline "has grown so out of whack" that many refiners could be facing negative margins by year-end, wrote Julian Murdoch, a senior reporter for Hard Assets Investor commodities Web site.

Low gasoline production could also keep prices high. As consumers have cut back on their driving, refiners have produced less gasoline, keeping supplies low — and prices high.

That could be why, despite a 20 percent drop in oil prices from their record highs of $147.27 a barrel in July, gasoline prices have dropped only about 11 percent off their own records, falling from $4.11 a gallon to a more recent average of $3.65.

Away from gas stations, the stickiness of prices depends on how hard it was to raise them in the first place.

Industries where competition is intense and the product is essentially the same, like airlines, can react quickly to both higher and lower costs.

In other businesses, the lead time to create a product is much greater. Higher prices for corn and grain have meant higher feed costs for pork producers, causing them to lose money and leading them to slaughter hogs at a record rate this year. A smaller breeding herd means fewer pigs will come to market next year.

"We expect fresh pork prices and live hog values will increase gradually over time as supplies tighten," Smithfield Foods Inc. said in its annual report.

The poultry industry, faced with similar pressures, has been slaughtering chickens at a record rate. So even if feed prices fall 20 percent tomorrow, pork and chicken prices won't drop in lockstep.

In other aisles of the grocery store, higher prices are often sticky — once they move in one direction, they tend to stay there.

Clorox Co. said in its fourth-quarter report that it raised prices this month for Clorox liquid bleach by 10 percent, the first increase in more than two years. It also took its first price increase in two years for cat litter and Tilex cleaner, and the first increase in a year for Hidden Valley Ranch salad dressing. Don't expect those hard-won price increases to be reversed.

The same goes for invisible price increases such as when packages shrink while the price stays the same, pushing up how much you pay for each ounce. Producing smaller packages and retooling a factory takes time; once packages shrink, they tend to stay that way.

At Wal-Mart Stores Inc., house brand Special Kitty cat food, which used to come in 8 pound and 20 pound bags has shrunk to 7 pound and 18 pound bags. Purina Dog Chow bags that used to weigh 50 pounds now weigh 44.1 pounds. Formerly 21 pound bags of Arm & Hammer Kitty Litter are now 20 pounds.

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Business Writer Ellen Simon covers the economy. She can be reached at esimon(at)ap.org.

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