Exclusive WSBT-Tribune poll shows Democratic primary race too close to call

by Jim Pinkerton (jmpinkerton@wsbt.com)

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Democratic presidential hopefuls Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill. and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y.

Democratic presidential hopefuls Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill. and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y. (AP Photos)

By Beth Boehne

It looks like Indiana's Democratic primary is turning into a dog fight with four weeks to go before voters head to the polls.

If the primary were held today, the race for the Democratic presidential nomination appears too close to call.

WSBT and the South Bend Tribune conducted a statewide poll earlier this week of 400 likely Democratic primary voters. We found Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama just points apart.

Hillary Clinton is ahead right now, but not by much. Our poll shows her with 49 percent of the vote compared to Barack Obama's 46 percent. With a margin of error of 5 percent, the race is too close to call.

And the surprising part to the campaigns is that there are relatively few undecided voters to sway.

"I don't know that it makes it harder,” said former Governor Joe Kernan, who works for the Clinton campaign. “It certainly makes it more interesting because you do have that element of people who at this point have made up their minds."

But Obama's camp says the poll may not reflect reality.

"He always tries to bring new voters into the process,” said Sen. John Broden of Barack Obama. “I think he always relies on a bump in the polls because there are people who we tend to under-poll or fail to poll who have done very well for him."

When you break down the numbers by sex, Clinton has the advantage with women; Obama is favored by men.

When race is factored in, Obama has a huge lead with blacks; Clinton is favored by whites.

But regardless of those factors, the tight race poses some challenges for the candidates.

"When there are so few undecided, I think what you're trying to do is hope that your opponent stumbles or make a strong case for yourself that represents a weakness in the other candidate,” explained Bethel College Professor Dennis Engbrecht.

Our exclusive poll shows the voters feel Clinton has run a more negative campaign. There are fears that will fracture the party and hurt Democrats’ chances in the fall.

But that doesn't appear to be the case right now.

If the eventual nominee is Obama, the poll shows that Democrats would rally behind him in the fall. The same holds true for Clinton.

Few Democrats would defect to the McCain camp in the fall -- something Engbrecht would expect with a moderate Republican running.

"If there's going to be some party switching, you'd think it would be more likely in this election,” Engbrecht said. “But the results of this poll indicate that Democratic voters are committed to a Democratic candidate regardless of how intense it is."

Engbrecht say there's not much of a difference among whites if Clinton or Obama is the eventual nominee. But the support for Clinton drops among blacks and it's not made up by McCain.

He says that seems to indicate there's a segment of voters who would simply not vote if Obama does not get the nomination.

It appears the candidates are doing the right thing by talking about the economy, Iraq and health care. Those were the top three issues noted by voters in our poll.

Sen. Obama is coming to Ft. Wayne Friday. WSBT News will have a crew there during his campaign stop, and will have more on how Hoosiers responded.

On WSBT News Friday at 6 p.m., we will discuss the results of our poll on the Democrats running for Indiana governor.

Tuesday, May 6 at 4:16 AM Sandy wrote ...

Jetsetting the planet as a First lady is hardly the requirement for a good president. The Clintons always have been a liar -she is not even able to run her own campaign in a decent manner.

Friday, May 2 at 3:29 PM Michelle L. wrote ...

Hello, Hoosiers! United we Stand..divided we fall. Let's UNITE and VOTE for "Barack Obama for President.

Thursday, Apr 24 at 12:31 PM Terry wrote ...

Senator Obama offers Indiana the kind of president we and the country needs. Indiana has the opportunity to end the fractious and divisive war within the Democratic party. What all the elections show is that Senator Clinton has good support among certain Democratic groups; Senator Obama has broad support within the traditional Partycheks, but also appeals to indpendents and even Republicans who are fed up with the Bush Administration. He can win the general; in my opinion, she can't win it.

Wednesday, Apr 23 at 5:11 PM Kathy Giannini wrote ...

I'm American living in France and am appalled with the media's unfair coverage of Clinton. She's been all over the planet. She's the one who is the truly international candidate who can restore America's relations with other countries. Head of a subcommittee which deals with Europe, Obama hasn't bothered to make it over here. The senate should remove him from the chairmanship and the committee. Some statemen take their responsibilities seriously.

Wednesday, Apr 23 at 11:29 AM Mamatha wrote ...

In order to secure a democratic victory, I wish Obama had waited another few years to run for president. He and Clinton are the same in terms of substance and she was a shoe-in for the nomination prior to his coming on the scene. It is sad that he has divided the party when there is a great woman, who the party could have rallied behind. She's already been in a room with Fidel Castro, given speeches in Beijing and organized a White House Staff.

Wednesday, Apr 16 at 9:32 PM Vern wrote ...

To susiewat-- I wouldn't vote for Hillary Rotenhams Clinton if she were the only one running!

Monday, Apr 7 at 7:29 PM Islander wrote ...

I cannot wait for the chaos to ensure when the decision is made at the convention. If Hillary loses she will probably blame a vast right wing conspiracy and if Obama loses even with more delegates, the black voters will be completely disenfranchised. Can you say Chicago 1968? Don't count out the Clinton machine. They're up to something. I wouldn't trust all three candidates as far as I can throw them. But, with my bad knee, I shouldn't be throwing anything.

Friday, Apr 4 at 10:33 PM Granger wrote ...

Heaven help us all. I dread waking up the morning after the election to see who our next lying president will be. These 3 are the worst I've ever seen. God help this sad country!!!!!

Friday, Apr 4 at 8:30 PM xstryker wrote ...

The poll would sound more meaningful if you acknowledged that it was conducted by Research 2000, one of the most accurate pollsters around.

Friday, Apr 4 at 8:23 PM susiewat wrote ...

No one to vote for: Please check out hillaryclinton.com and hillaryclintonforum.net Hillary Clinton has run a clean campaign much cleaner campaign than her opponent who pulls the race card any time he's questioned on his record, Rezko, Wright, the economy, Afghanistan, (not Iraq though because he was against that from the start - or was he?) Please consider voting for Hillary Clinton.

Friday, Apr 4 at 2:54 PM No one to vote for wrote ...

It's hard to believe but if I had to guess it looks like the Republicans will keep the White House. I've always been a Democrat, in fact served office as a Democrat but between 'black he and white she said' nothing has been stated by either candidate that insipre my confidence. Again, it looks like instead of a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, place finish for the best qualified 'person' it will be 3rd, 2nd or first for the best of the lousiest to choose from. How sad. Remember this when we ask why things stink!

Friday, Apr 4 at 2:01 PM Anonymous wrote ...

"Too close to call"? If Hillary was up 10% with an margin of error of 5%, would you concede the Indiana primary to Hillary with four weeks left? What was the purpose of this poll?

Friday, Apr 4 at 1:03 PM Ernie Mac wrote ...

I read these things all the time and I can't believe how funny some people are, but the 'pollster' on this story today had me laughing so hard I had to make a run for the bathroom. You got a talent there whoever you are. You could be on television! Thanks for the yucks!

Friday, Apr 4 at 12:54 PM JIMBO wrote ...

TIME FOR THE GREAT MISHAWAKA SCHOOL SYSTEM TO STEP UP AND INVITE OBAMA TO TAKE OVER FOR A DAY! FAIR IS FAIR, OR DO THE POWERS THAT BE ONLY SUPPORT BILLARY? HMMMM????

Friday, Apr 4 at 11:54 AM Gore! wrote ...

While Hillary and Obama hurt any chance the Dems have to take the white house, I can only hope Gore makes a late run. If not, my vote will go to Obama.

Friday, Apr 4 at 11:33 AM melvin wrote ...

Hey Zimmerman and SBCSC Board Members: (resign) Wayne High School gymnasium 9100 Winchester Rd Fort Wayne, IN 46819 Friday, April 4th Doors Open: 9:00 a.m. The event is free and open to the public however tickets are required. Reserve your tickets online - BarackObama.com

Friday, Apr 4 at 9:53 AM Anonymous wrote ...

I like the way they interview for this. They said that 81% of blacks voted for Obama, if that isn't racist, what is. I feel that pollsters swing them their way by the way they ask question, and why not ask a per centage of all registered voters, how they would vote. Maybe I might vote in this primary? I usually don't because most of the time everything is settled. I consider myself and independant voter, who votes for the man, not the party.

Friday, Apr 4 at 8:33 AM Jon Beck (union member an teacher) wrote ...

How dare Dan Parker threaten voters who want to cross over party lines and vote in the primary. Is this what Democrats and their leaders want us to think is leadership for the country? I suggest Dan stop demanding to supply everybody everything from cradle to grave with our money, and pay for these liberal candidates himself. I thought about not crossing over but now I will CROSS OVER to foul up the Democrats results. I will be at 7th Day Adventice Church voting Dan. Come on out and stop me. OPC

Friday, Apr 4 at 8:08 AM Anonymous wrote ...

Dustin, WSBT reported yesterday that voter registration was "Normal". (http://www.wsbt.com/news/election/2008/17162896.html) Where do you get "off the charts" and "thousands of new voters"? Is this an imaginary land you live in? What's it like there? Are democratic mayors intelligent?

Friday, Apr 4 at 7:52 AM JIMBO wrote ...

Nick, you must be a sexist bigot...just kidding, she's toast!

Friday, Apr 4 at 7:49 AM Ike Wilson wrote ...

This is a good, strong race. Neither of them should drop out. It's highly probable that Obama will be ahead on all counts by June, but everyone should have a vote in this very important and decisive election. The more invested people are in the process, the more likely they will vote in November.

Friday, Apr 4 at 7:49 AM Tom wrote ...

Sorry, these polls mean nothing because they don't factor in Hillary breaking down in tears the day before the primary. That's got to be worth 5%.

Friday, Apr 4 at 7:29 AM Anonymous wrote ...

Clinton isn't going to drop out. She's leading in Indiana and Pennsylvania. This will go the the convention undecided. The chaos there will outperform any wrestlemania event. Talk about must watch TV.

Thursday, Apr 3 at 11:52 PM brenda wrote ...

i think that hilary clinton should be the president

Thursday, Apr 3 at 11:51 PM A pollster... wrote ...

Remember folks, this was an EXCLUSIVE WSBT-TV POLL! It just so happens I took a poll of my own. I call it the 'People waiting for a train to clear the Beech Rd crossing in Osceola Poll' and according to that poll most people don' want to talk about who they are going to vote for. Of the 30 cars approached only 11 rolled down their windows and only one of them knew there was an election coming up. That one person by the way plans to vote for Kennedy...well not everyone gets the paper!

Thursday, Apr 3 at 11:14 PM Todd wrote ...

Oh come on...you call 400 a reasonable sample of the entire state? That is like going to McDonalds and interviewing 4 of the 50 people in there. Flawed study I am afraid.

Thursday, Apr 3 at 11:13 PM Gail wrote ...

Hillary does NOT need to drop out. What part of Democracy have we forgot? I for one will not vote for him, but I will vote for Hillary!

Thursday, Apr 3 at 8:49 PM Dustin wrote ...

The turnout for this election will be off the charts. There are thousands of new voters this year and that will definitely affect this race. New voters also do not register in a poll like this.

Thursday, Apr 3 at 8:22 PM Nick wrote ...

The Clinton's won't even be in the race by the time Indiana votes. Look at the polls. If she wins PA, it will be a slim margin. She needs to win 62% to Obama's 38% in every remaining state to win the delegates. She hasnt had that big of margin anywhere. Its not going to happen. She needs to drop out

Thursday, Apr 3 at 6:34 PM Trebor wrote ...

What other kind of fight could it be with nothing but DOGS entered!!! reformparty.org or anything other than whats offered!! enough is enough America.

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