Poll shows tight Democratic race for governor

by Jim Pinkerton (jmpinkerton@wsbt.com)

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Democratic candidates for governor Jill Long Thompson and Jim Schellinger.

Democratic candidates for governor Jill Long Thompson and Jim Schellinger. (Photos provided)

By Beth Boehne

Story Created: Apr 4, 2008 at 5:59 PM EST

Story Updated: Apr 4, 2008 at 5:59 PM EST

Our exclusive WSBT-South Bend Tribune poll shows the race in Indiana between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama is too close to call right now.

There's also a close race for the Democrats running for Indiana governor. The big difference is there are a lot of undecided voters to sway in this statewide poll.

Both Jill Long Thompson and Jim Schellinger have been crisscrossing the state, trying to drum up support for their campaigns. Schellinger has also hit the local TV airwaves hard.

Our exclusive poll finds Long Thompson with a 1 percent edge over her competitor. With a margin of error of 5 percent, the race is too close to call.

The candidates are both optimistic they're the one with momentum heading into the primary.

“Forty-two percent support among the voters is very good because I represented in Congress just one congressional district which is one-ninth the population,” Long Thompson told WSBT News.

"People believe we can and should be doing better in Indiana,” Schellinger told WSBT News. “We deserve better leadership and our message is getting out.”

Both are vying for the 17 percent of voters who say they're still undecided.

Those voting in the presidential race have apparently made up their minds on a candidate. But Dave Parker from IU-South Bend says it's not surprising so many haven't made up their minds in this race.

"With the governor's race, it hasn't received the press,” he explained. “It's not as far along as the presidential race. It hasn't had the number of ads compared to the presidential campaign."

Parker thinks that gap will close as both candidates make a push in the final weeks before the primary to get their message out.

But he says the numbers pose a problem for Long Thompson who has run for office before.

"She should be around 50 percent,” Parker said. “The fact that she's around 42 [percent] and there's 17 percent undecided, that spells some problems for her, I think, going into the race and actually is a net bonus for Schellinger."

The poll shows that women favor Long Thompson and men favor Schellinger.

Long Thompson hopes to capitalize on the interest in the presidential race.

“Jill Long Thompson has a significant advantage with women,” Parker explained. “If Hillary is drawing more people in and they're women, that may help her down on the ticket a little bit."

But Parker also thinks that Schellinger may be helped if voters consider him an outsider.

He says it's really hard to predict who will be helped the most by higher turnout — it boils down to who turns out on Election Day.

One of the things our expert noted is that the tone of the campaign will probably change. Because the numbers are so close, Parker expects the tone of the campaign to get a lot more negative. He says the candidates will be trying to put some dings in their opponents.

For more election headlines and voter resources, go to WSBT.com's Campaign ‘08 section.

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