The Many Interpretations of Governor's Race Poll

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By Beth Boehne

INDIANAPOLIS (AP) — Polls on big political races always produce plenty of takes on what the results mean.

Take a WISH-TV Indiana poll on the 2008 Indiana governor's race released last week. Democrats said the numbers showed that Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels was in danger, or at least vulnerable, in his quest to get re-elected next year.

The Daniels' campaign said the results showed he was in fine shape. Daniels himself seemed unfazed one way or the other. Two political scientists had their own thoughts, agreeing on at least one: With the May 2008 primary months away and the general election that November even farther off, it's early.

The statewide telephone poll of 800 registered, likely voters conducted Sept. 10-14 had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

When asked to rate Daniels' performance, 8 percent said excellent, 37 percent said good, 34 percent said "only fair," 13 percent said poor, and 8 percent were undecided.

When asked if the election were held today, 39 percent said they would vote to re-elect Daniels, 21 percent said they would consider another candidate, 37 percent said they would vote to replace him, and 3 percent weren't sure.

In a subgroup of 400 likely Democratic primary voters, 46 percent said they favored former U.S. Rep. Jill Long Thompson for the Democratic nomination, 16 percent were for state Senate Minority Leader Richard Young and 10 percent would vote for Jim Schellinger, president of an Indianapolis architecture firm.

When asked if the general election was between Daniels and Long Thompson, Daniels led 46 percent to 38 percent with the rest undecided.

Long Thompson pointed to her lead among Democratic candidates and noted that she trailed Daniels by only eight points even though she announced her campaign just 10 weeks ago.

Schellinger's campaign said that even though he had never sought office, his support among Democrats was in double digits (10 percent). They also said as the campaign begins in earnest, more people will get to know and embrace him.

The Long Thompson and Schellinger campaigns also pointed to the 39 percent re-elect number for Daniels. Long's camp called that "most alarming," and Schellinger's said it was exceptionally low for an incumbent.

Democrats also considered "excellent and good" to be positive job approval ratings, and "only fair and poor" to be negative. If that's so, Daniels positive job rating was below 50 percent. The Daniels campaign considered excellent, good and fair to be positive, and if that's so, eight out of 10 approved his performance.

Robert Dion, a professor of American politics at the University of Evansville, said one could view those ratings either way. But he did suggest that the results show that Daniels "has some work to do."

"Mitch Daniels might view the results as a wake-up call, and Democrats can look at it as an opportunity, that it's not an unwinnable race, but you wouldn't want to overstate the results," Dion said.

Dion said Daniels likely stirred some opposition by his aggressive style of seeking big changes, such as leasing the Indiana Toll Road and getting statewide daylight saving time enacted. Daniels said he didn't put much stock in polls but acknowledged that there is a faction of Hoosiers who don't like change.

Dion and Brian Vargus — a political science professor at Indiana University-Purdue University at Indianapolis who used to conduct political polls there — both noted that Long Thompson enjoyed the most name recognition among Democrats so far. She was a congresswoman in northeastern Indiana from 1989 to 1995, and was in a high-profile congressional race in northern Indiana in 2002.

Dion said he found it kind of comical for the Schellinger campaign to play up 10 percent support as being in double digits, and said he needed to boost his name ID. But he noted that Schellinger is being backed by some big labor organizations and that he had an inside track on some major donors.

Vargus said it was too early to read anything into the poll.

"What they say now doesn't necessarily mean anything," he said. "People change their minds. One-third of voters make up their mind in the last week of an election. And how many things might change," before then?

Some things are sure to change, and there will be more polls. And everyone will have their own takes on the results.

Thursday, Aug 14 at 7:15 PM Michael P. wrote ...

I guess you all have forgotten the state the Democrats left us in last time they were in office? So with a couple of policies that you don't agree with (I was against them as well mind you) you would put us back into the hands of those whose policies did(and will again) a very fine job of screwing up the State? Aftereffects of which Daniels actually did fix?!

Friday, Jul 18 at 11:07 PM Goshen wrote ...

I am a life long republican, and I will vote for ANYONE not named Daniels. The time change and the toll road are the reasons why. We know he puts no stock in polls. When the polls showed a vast majority did NOT want daylight savings time, he rammed it through anyway. I need to take a deep breath to say this, but here goes: Please vote democratic this year!!

Monday, May 5 at 10:42 PM Sherry Dobrodt wrote ...

Mitch Daniels efforts to Privatize the state to death leave me and many other Hoosiers cold. Aramark is feeding the inmates substandard food. The toll road is raising their rates. The time change is very confusing to those of us who flip flop twice a year. The way Medicaid is now being run is crazy and paper rich. The way Daniels has dealt with the State parks is insane. We need our Parks, wetlands and forrests to keep our environment sound. I'm voting Democratic and praying we win.

Sunday, Mar 23 at 7:54 PM Jeff Moore wrote ...

Mitch Daniels will not get my vote, he will sale the state down the drain.I will vote for the democrats they are for the middle class and the poor.

Thursday, Feb 28 at 1:51 PM jeff moore wrote ...

I will have to cast my vote for who ever runs against Daniels I believe he will sell this state down the drain.I'm a working man, he's not for me. His belief is to give the money to the top and it will trickle down to the poor.Guess what; that never happens, the money stays at the top.Again I'm a working man, he's not for me.He's for the rich,he proves it every day.

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