McCain narrows gap with Obama in new Michigan poll

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By Beth Boehne

Story Created: Jul 24, 2008 at 9:36 AM EST

Story Updated: Jul 24, 2008 at 2:53 PM EST

LANSING, Mich. (AP) — Republican John McCain has narrowed the gap between himself and Democrat Barack Obama in Michigan, gaining among independents, according to a poll released Thursday.

Forty-six percent of those polled say they'd back Obama if the presidential election were held now, while 42 percent would support McCain. Nine percent were undecided. A month ago, Obama held a slight 48-percent-to-42-percent lead over McCain in a Quinnipiac poll.

The more recent statewide poll of 1,684 likely voters was conducted July 14 through Tuesday by Quinnipiac University in Hamden, Conn. It was commissioned by the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post. It coincides with similar polls for Colorado, Minnesota and Wisconsin, all considered electoral battleground states.

"The good news for McCain is that he has improved his standing in Colorado and Michigan, two states that are critical to each man's strategy," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Obama wants to break through in the Rocky Mountain and Southwestern states that have been going Republican for decades. McCain sees recently Democratic Michigan as his top takeaway target," Brown added. "In order to close the gap (in Michigan), McCain needs to do a little bit better winning back the Democrats who voted for Ronald Reagan and their children."

He also needs to lock in more voters. About 24 percent of McCain supporters said they might change their minds, compared to 19 percent of Obama supporters. Obama has a four-point lead among voters who say their minds are made up.

An EPIC-MRA poll released Monday by The Detroit News and TV stations WXYZ, WILX, WOOD and WJRT had Obama at 43 percent and McCain at 41 percent, with third-party candidates Ralph Nader and Bob Barr each in the low single digits. That July 13-15 poll surveyed 600 likely voters statewide and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

In last month's Quinnipiac poll, Obama was leading 46 percent to 38 percent among independents. But that has switched, with McCain now getting 44 percent of the independent vote to 41 percent for Obama.

"Senator Barack Obama's post-primary bubble hasn't burst, but it is leaking a bit," Brown said.

Michigan women gave Obama a 50 percent to 38 percent edge over McCain, while men preferred McCain 47 percent to 42 percent. McCain picked up 48 percent of the white vote, while Obama got 40 percent and 10 percent were undecided. Among black voters, 90 percent went to Obama, while 4 percent went to McCain and 7 percent were undecided.

McCain campaigned in Michigan while the Quinnipiac poll was being conducted.

The Arizona senator held a July 17 fundraiser in Ferrysburg and visited a hot dog stand that day in Grand Haven before traveling to southeast Michigan, where he held a July 18 town hall meeting with about 500 engineers and technicians at the General Motors Corp. Technical Center in Warren. He also visited the state on July 10.

Obama last campaigned in the state on June 16 and 17. His wife, Michelle, made her first Michigan stop of the campaign season on July 9 in Pontiac.

Twenty-nine percent of Michigan voters in the Quinnipiac poll said Michelle Obama better fit their idea of a first lady, while 28 percent picked Cindy McCain. Forty-three percent were undecided.

The poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points. It did not poll for Barr or Nader.

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EDITOR's NOTE: Kathy Barks Hoffman heads the Lansing AP bureau and has covered Michigan politics since 1986.

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On the Net:

Quinnipiac University: http://www.quinnipiac.edu

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