It would take a major campaign blunder for U.S. Sen. Barack Obama not to be sworn in as president of the United States on Jan. 20, according to a pollster’s analysis of a nationwide survey conducted for news outlets including The Tribune.

"This is clearly Obama’s election to lose,” said pollster Del Ali, of the Maryland-based firm Research 2000. “He would absolutely have to implode.”

A survey of 1,100 likely voters nationwide shows 51 percent backing Obama, the Democrat, and 39 percent supporting Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. About 3 percent back former U.S. Rep. Bob Barr, who is running as a Libertarian. About 2 percent support Ralph Nader, running as an independent.

The poll was conducted by telephone Friday through Sunday.

Research 2000 projected how Electoral College votes would pan out. According to the firm, Obama will earn 322 electoral votes, and McCain will have 216.

But polls, especially months away from an election, aren’t always right. Democrat Michael Dukakis was up 17 points to then-Vice President George H.W. Bush in the summer of 1988, Ali said.

Dukakis was soundly defeated by Bush in November, winning just 10 states and the District of Columbia, for 111 electoral college votes. Bush won 40 states and 426 electoral college votes.

“But the difference is, back then, a lot of pundits and analysts didn’t follow state polling,” Ali said.

And that’s where the sitting senator from Illinois differs from the one-time governor of Massachusetts, Ali said.

Right now we see him winning Nevada, Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, and that puts him over 272,” he said.

The Electoral College forecast is based on Research 2000’s own state polling, and, in states where the firm hasn’t polled, Ali looked at other polls and changes in voter registration rolls.

“A good example is Pennsylvania,” he said. “In Pennsylvania, the voter registration is 3 to 1 Democrats.”

The Research 2000 poll also shows widespread disapproval of Congress.

Just 13 percent of respondents said Congress was doing a good job, 81 percent disapproved of Congress’ work, and 6 percent weren’t sure.

Democrats in Congress got a 29 percent job approval rating from the poll’s respondents; Republicans garnered 18 percent approval.

“I think this is more about the criticism of Congress in general than either party,” said Sean Savage, professor of political science at Saint Mary’s College in South Bend. “Also you notice the disapproval ratings for Congress and President Bush is just about the same.”

Bush earned 22 percent job approval from the poll’s respondents; 78 percent said they disapproved of how the president was performing in office.

U.S. Rep. Joe Donnelly, D-Granger, said it’s clear when he talks to people in his 2nd Congressional District that they’re frustrated with national government.

“The American people want to see progress on the economy, they want to see progress on the energy issue, and we want to get closer to stability in Iraq and success in Afghanistan also,” Donnelly said.

Donnelly said he has good bipartisan relationships, including with U.S. Rep. Fred Upton, R-St. Joseph, and that he hopes that sentiment spreads to other members of Congress.

“When that happens, we can make tremendous progress,” Donnelly said. “What really has to end is the bickering and what has to begin is the understanding that our total devotion and energy and focus should be on leading this country and making it more successful.”

Staff writer Ed Ronco: eronco@sbtinfo.com (574) 235-6353