Exclusive WSBT-Tribune poll shows Democratic primary race too close to call

by Jim Pinkerton (jmpinkerton@wsbt.com)

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Democratic presidential hopefuls Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill. and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y.

Democratic presidential hopefuls Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill. and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y. (AP Photos)

By Beth Boehne

Story Created: Apr 3, 2008 at 5:01 PM EST

Story Updated: Apr 9, 2008 at 8:45 AM EST

It looks like Indiana's Democratic primary is turning into a dog fight with four weeks to go before voters head to the polls.

If the primary were held today, the race for the Democratic presidential nomination appears too close to call.

WSBT and the South Bend Tribune conducted a statewide poll earlier this week of 400 likely Democratic primary voters. We found Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama just points apart.

Hillary Clinton is ahead right now, but not by much. Our poll shows her with 49 percent of the vote compared to Barack Obama's 46 percent. With a margin of error of 5 percent, the race is too close to call.

And the surprising part to the campaigns is that there are relatively few undecided voters to sway.

"I don't know that it makes it harder,” said former Governor Joe Kernan, who works for the Clinton campaign. “It certainly makes it more interesting because you do have that element of people who at this point have made up their minds."

But Obama's camp says the poll may not reflect reality.

"He always tries to bring new voters into the process,” said Sen. John Broden of Barack Obama. “I think he always relies on a bump in the polls because there are people who we tend to under-poll or fail to poll who have done very well for him."

When you break down the numbers by sex, Clinton has the advantage with women; Obama is favored by men.

When race is factored in, Obama has a huge lead with blacks; Clinton is favored by whites.

But regardless of those factors, the tight race poses some challenges for the candidates.

"When there are so few undecided, I think what you're trying to do is hope that your opponent stumbles or make a strong case for yourself that represents a weakness in the other candidate,” explained Bethel College Professor Dennis Engbrecht.

Our exclusive poll shows the voters feel Clinton has run a more negative campaign. There are fears that will fracture the party and hurt Democrats’ chances in the fall.

But that doesn't appear to be the case right now.

If the eventual nominee is Obama, the poll shows that Democrats would rally behind him in the fall. The same holds true for Clinton.

Few Democrats would defect to the McCain camp in the fall -- something Engbrecht would expect with a moderate Republican running.

"If there's going to be some party switching, you'd think it would be more likely in this election,” Engbrecht said. “But the results of this poll indicate that Democratic voters are committed to a Democratic candidate regardless of how intense it is."

Engbrecht say there's not much of a difference among whites if Clinton or Obama is the eventual nominee. But the support for Clinton drops among blacks and it's not made up by McCain.

He says that seems to indicate there's a segment of voters who would simply not vote if Obama does not get the nomination.

It appears the candidates are doing the right thing by talking about the economy, Iraq and health care. Those were the top three issues noted by voters in our poll.

Sen. Obama is coming to Ft. Wayne Friday. WSBT News will have a crew there during his campaign stop, and will have more on how Hoosiers responded.

On WSBT News Friday at 6 p.m., we will discuss the results of our poll on the Democrats running for Indiana governor.

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