BERRIEN CO. — The downturn in the economy could have an effect on tourism in our area. A forecast by Michigan State researchers shows the state's tourism is expected to decline by 2 percent. The number of tourists stayed flat last year.

But analysts say Southwest Michigan could fare better than other parts of the state. That's because of its proximity to Chicago and Indiana. Local businesses certainly hope that is the case. Many rely on tourist traffic to make ends meet.

Chances are that postcard or other souvenir you picked up when you went to the Upper Peninsula or Muskegon or Detroit came from Penrod/Hiawatha.

It's a relatively small operation in Berrien County, with a big reach.

“We started out 50 years ago with just postcards, and since then have branched out to all kinds of souvenirs and retail items,” said Dan Penrod, the head of the company.

Despite the downturn in the economy and high gas prices, stores and tourist shops are still sending orders.

Dan Penrod says that's because some souvenirs are recession resistant.

“Maybe people think twice about buying a jacket for $50 or a sweatshirt for $30, but a 35 cent postcard or that mug I just showed you, $8 retail, that's not such a big deal,” Penrod said.

Analysts say more people will stay closer to home for vacations and that could be good news for some local business.

“I think with the gas prices, it will help with our local people, coming more downtown and frequent the downtown area because of the cost of gas,” said Patti Beland, who works at Kilwin’s Chocolates and Ice Cream in St. Joseph.

Tourism could suffer the most up in the Upper Peninsula, but the Michigan State researchers say the weak dollar could bring in more international tourists. The state tourism office plans to buy more ads in Canada and neighboring states to attract tourists from areas, where the economy isn't as slow.