Exclusive poll shows Jill Long Thompson widening lead in governor's race

by Jim Pinkerton (jmpinkerton@wsbt.com)

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Democratic candidates for governor Jill Long Thompson and Jim Schellinger.

Democratic candidates for governor Jill Long Thompson and Jim Schellinger. (Photos provided)

By Jim Pinkerton

Story Created: Apr 25, 2008 at 4:18 PM EST

Story Updated: Apr 25, 2008 at 10:06 PM EST

Jill Long Thompson appears to be picking up steam in the Democratic race for Indiana governor. A new exclusive WSBT-South Bend Tribune poll shows the former congresswoman has widened the gap between her and challenger Jim Schellinger.

A little more than a week before the primary, Long Thompson now has a six point lead over Schellinger. Long Thompson would take 48 percent of the vote; Schellinger would get 42 percent. There are still 10 percent undecided. That's down from 17 percent in our last poll.

"It does look as if some of the undecided have moved into the Long Thompson category so that's not a terribly good sign for Schellinger," said political science professor Elizabeth Bennion from IU South Bend.

Bennion says political ads may be playing a part in the widening gap. Long Thompson has been attacking Schellinger, and until lately, he's been focusing on feel-good ads that tout his South Bend roots.

"He's focused on his Hoosier values as he sees it and that can be really compelling to people, especially locally, but it may not play as well in Indianapolis," Bennion said.

The biggest shock to pollster Del Ali from Research 2000 is what happens when you look ahead to November. If the general election were held today, Long Thompson and Gov. Mitch Daniels are in a dead heat with 45 percent each.

The numbers are almost identical if Schellinger is the eventual nominee: Daniels with 45 percent and Schellinger with 44 percent.

"I actually thought Daniels would be over 50 percent, or if anything, he would have an 8 to 9 point lead," Ali said.

While that indicates the governor is vulnerable right now, the top issue for voters is taxes and state spending. Ali says that favors Daniels in the fall. But he says if economy, job creation and education move up, that works to the Democrats' advantage.

"I think a point here or a point there is probably not significant from any statistical standpoint, but I think I'm much more prepared to take on Gov. Daniels," Long Thompson said.

"There is no question the governor is vulnerable, but I truly believe, and I say this respectfully and humbly, that I am the candidate that can beat Mitch Daniels," Schellinger said.

Respondents were also asked to rate the job Gov. Daniels is doing. Forty-two percent of the people questioned say he's doing a good or excellent job, 49 percent say fair or poor.

Bennion says property tax relief may have actually backfired for the governor because so many mayors have said the state is just passing the buck to the cities and counties.

Bennion says the high undecided rate in this poll could be because people have been focused on the presidential race for the first time in 40 years and are just now focusing on the governor's race. She expects people to get a lot of calls and knocks on the door in the next week.

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