Rick Mecklenburg’s Summer Forecast

by Rick Mecklenburg (rick@wsbt.com)

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Rick Mecklenburg's summer forecast

(WSBT file photo)

By Beth Boehne

We may finally see some warmer temperatures this week, but what about the rest of the summer? Will it be hot and stormy or cool and wet? Let's find out! We're 'Stormtracking the Summer of 2008.'

The beach, the pool, picnics and festivals — some of the best things about summer. But this can also be a deadly time of year. Our peak severe weather season is in June and July, and it appears we may be in for a very active severe weather year.

As of May 19, 2008, there have already been 910 reports of tornadoes in the United States this year. Unfortunately, those tornadoes have killed 99 people — more deaths than in the entire years of 2005, 2006 and 2007.

So far, those have all been to the south, but that will change. That's because the air well to the north is much colder than usual, and this cold air diving south to meet the warm and humid air can result in some big storms.

In addition to some heavy storms, another potential summer danger is high heat. One way I gauge the heat of a summer is by the number of days in which the high temperature is at least 90. I do this because I think we can all agree that 90 degrees is hot.

On average, there are 11 days each summer with high temperatures of at least 90. In 1988, we had as many as 44 and as a few as just one back in 2004 and other years.

So what about this summer?

If history is a guide, there will be plenty of heat. I checked past years that were similar to this one in terms of precipitation and temperature. I found 13 similar years to help me make my forecast. In those 13 summers, the average number of 90-degree days was 16.

However, because there will likely be a lot of storms, that means higher humidity might limit the heat somewhat, so I am forecasting 14 days of temperatures of at least 90 degrees.

Thursday, Jul 10 at 4:53 PM faithful watcher from Mentone wrote ...

Rick, Carrie, and Andrew do a wonderful job, I enjoy watching their forcast. So I say KUDOS to all three and keep up the good work, just ignore those rude remarks made the people who don't have a clue when it is even raining outside!!!!!!!

Monday, Jul 7 at 10:18 AM Connie wrote ...

I, for one, enjoy Rick's bad jokes. Corny as they are, they add a little humor to my day. I wonder why humidity is not part of the forecasted weather. It is a very important factor to me.

Monday, Jun 30 at 11:55 AM jaceri wrote ...

Amen, MC! And disgusted too. I am a huge weather fan and I appreciate the work that all our local meteorologists put in. True, they are not always spot on but, ir push comes to shove and you keep accurate records, I think you will find they are pretty close. I do feel they make mountains out of mole hills some times but what news-caster doesn't do this? At least, with weather forecasters, their speculations will not cause all of us to spend $5 per gallon on gas in the near future!

Sunday, Jun 29 at 9:59 AM mc wrote ...

"Tuesday, May 20 at 8:36 PM what ajoke wrote ... this guy couldnt forecast the next sunrise someone should go to elkhart and bye a surplus single pane trailer window to put at his hi-tech super triple double doopler station" This guy goes off and tries to be funny when he can't even use "bye" correctly. What exactly is a "doopler"?

Sunday, Jun 15 at 11:03 AM Disgusted wrote ...

The problem with the internet is that it gives morons a platform.

Thursday, Jun 5 at 9:41 PM whatajoke wrote ...

well lets see we need three loacl tv stations to tell us what we can get off of the internet anytime with out listen to all the 10 min of bs to get to the 45 sec of meaningful info. and lets not forget the super double doppler wars between mike h.and ricky that was good drama like roseland. hey that an idea the snyders doing the wheather. Hmmm.dark clouds and stormy everyday

Friday, May 30 at 12:53 PM wait and see wrote ...

lol i love reading the postes on here ...all i can say is we all will have to wait and see i think it"s funny rick how every one seems to think they know your job lol and all the other so called weather people that work on the weather so called

Thursday, May 29 at 1:11 AM Mandy wrote ...

I think some of you guys are very rude. We are all human and we all make mistakes. How many of you are perfect? I'm just glad we get a headsup on what the weather will most likly be like.Can you imagine what it would be like to have no meteorologist? I for one appreciate what you do rick. Thanks for keeping us informed?

Sunday, May 25 at 9:50 PM Dan wrote ...

I think we would give the TV weather prople more credit if they would explain why there forecast did not turn out the way they reported it the day before. We will have rain, but we have sun! We will have a cloudy day but it snows. They should let the viewer know WHY their forecast did not turn out the way they had forecast it. Not just go onto the next day with out any explaination.

Friday, May 23 at 6:59 PM Brenda from Mentone wrote ...

Rick, Carrie, and Andrew all do a wonderful job. They are there for each and everyone of us, cutting into programs when severe weather is in the forecast. They are also there for us in the winter time with the snow storms. So lay off of the weather forecasters, they are doing there job and a great job that they are doing!!!!!!!!! Keep up the good work channel 22.

Thursday, May 22 at 5:22 PM Jon wrote ...

First and foremost, you are a professional meteorologist and you present yourself in that manner each time you are on the air or in person. While others may believe that you are prone to errors, I wonder if they have ever looked at themselves to see if they have ever been wrong! mmm? Rick, you do a great job! Given all the variables that one has to deal with, you SHINE!! My dream before I get much older ( 55 now) would be to be a guest meteorologist, if that is allowable.Have a great summer.

Thursday, May 22 at 2:12 PM Shane----weathaman fa sho wrote ...

I personally, as a junior meteorologist, have respect for Rick and what he does. He saves lives when he warns people. He helps predict our future. Weather is happening ALL the time, whether we like it or not. It can change in a matter of centiseconds. So for people who discriminate against the predictions of meteorologists, think about it. You try guessing at what happens to the weather the next day and see if it's not difficult for you to find that change ALWAYS happens!

Thursday, May 22 at 1:03 PM Be responsible for yourself... wrote ...

I think that the improved doppler radar and the weather forecasters are very important during immediate storm threats, and I'm glad that they break into the regular programming, but as far as day-to-day weather... well, I for one would rather check outside for myself. Then I don't get angry with the weather guy if I get rained on and forgot my umbrella... or snowed on and forgot my boots! Take responsibility for yourself everybody!

Wednesday, May 21 at 2:27 PM Art wrote ...

Gotta give the props here to Mike. My foot (the left one) has been tinglin since March 21st insuch a way that I knowed we had a hot blustery one coming. Lot of doom and gloom in mikes perdicshions though. Me, I see good times with parties on the beach, couple of cookouts and such. My weather Glass is half full!! Enjoy the summer and be safe!

Wednesday, May 21 at 11:30 AM Mike wrote ...

I don't know. He was pretty on with the winter forecast this year and last.

Wednesday, May 21 at 11:17 AM Hater of global warming wrote ...

It's obvious by reading these comments that people have no faith in the weatherman. I know I don't past one or two days. Why is it then that people are so ready to believe in global warming and our soon coming destruction when our weather guys can't predict with 50% accuracy that it will rain next week? Remember that 30 years ago they predicted we'd be in an ice age by now.

Wednesday, May 21 at 9:43 AM 41 year old... wrote ...

My prediction is it will get light every morning and dark every night with periods of warm, cold, hot, cool, rain, wind and drought. These predictions are a joke :) It is what it is, period.

Wednesday, May 21 at 6:54 AM Annoyed in Mishawaka wrote ...

triple super doppler and the weather humvee can't predict the weather any better than I can (I tend to be more accurate as I stick my head out a window once in awhile). Sorry. I've lost faith in the local weather people. I stick to the Weather Channel, they seem to have a better handle down there in Atlanta on our weather than our local people. How strange is that!

Tuesday, May 20 at 11:38 PM Deb wrote ...

whatajoke, why do u have to be so rude?

Tuesday, May 20 at 8:39 PM Anonymous wrote ...

And what do we get if you're wrong?

Tuesday, May 20 at 8:36 PM what ajoke wrote ...

this guy couldnt forecast the next sunrise someone should go to elkhart and bye a surplus single pane trailer window to put at his hi-tech super triple double doopler station that way he can open it up stick his head outside to see what is actually happening before he goes on the air.

Tuesday, May 20 at 8:24 PM Long Hot Summer wrote ...

Since when does high humidity keep the heat down? High humidity makes the heat worse! I am thinking of those nights where it gets down to about 65 or 70 but the humidity makes the air so thick and oppressive that it feels hotter. It is worse during the day. It may be chilly in the morning now, but those hot, humid days are coming.

Tuesday, May 20 at 3:39 PM Anonymous wrote ...

Sorry, but this cool weather has been going on since we hit 65 in January. There's been a seemingly impenetrable pool of cool air extending from Minot to Caribou, to a little south of us. I've never seen the jet stream not move around & provide us warm warm-ups during the spring like this before. This pattern has been in place for nearly 5 months & from what I can tell, isn't going to change. 14 days of 90's?! I'm so scared. I'll believe it when I see it.

Tuesday, May 20 at 1:45 PM steve wrote ...

We have severe weather every year. I didn't read anywhere in the article that it is suppose to be worse than years past. It just states it has been worse in other places than in years past.

Tuesday, May 20 at 12:38 PM I'm a weather guy too! wrote ...

Okay, I've made a copy of this article and I will track it to see just how 'accurate' it turns out to be. I'M predicting that while we'll have our share of severe weather,(that's like saying I predict that there will be a Christmas in December)it won't be the trumped up scenerio that Rick is forecasting to make people afraid to step out from in front of their televisions for fear of being blown away by a tornadoe that they would have known was coming if they had been watching Wheel of Fortune!

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