(AP Photo/The Indianapolis Star, CHARLIE NYE) Flood waters from the Wabash River surround this farm in southwest Indiana on Thursday. With floodwaters sweeping across Midwestern farms, Purdue experts caution consumers about the safety and quality of their produce.
Story Created:
Jun 19, 2008 at 8:39 PM EST
Story Updated:
Jun 25, 2008 at 11:16 AM EST
ELKHART COUNTY — Local farmers are beginning to feel the pinch from record flooding across the Midwest. They're not the only ones. Price hikes are on their way to a grocery store near you.
It's more bad news for consumers already being hit by record prices at the gas pump, and price hikes in checkout lines due to increased food shipping prices. Now, some economists predict prices on many foods could jump again by as much as 10 percent across the board within a matter of weeks.
Flooding across the Midwest is to blame for the latest increases. On Thursday, Indiana State Agriculture Department Director Andy Miller said it's likely flooding in early June has already caused the worst agricultural disaster in the state's history. Preliminary estimates show about 9 percent of the state's corn and soybean crops were flooded. He predicts farmers will see losses in excess of $800 million. That doesn't include additional losses to their homes and farm machinery.
Iowa's Farm Bureau estimates between 1.5 million and 2 million acres of corn and soybeans are destroyed in the Hawkeye State as well, including valuable rich farmland near rivers where many farmers may be unable to re-plant crops in time for this year's harvest.
Illinois and Missouri farmers along the Mississippi River are also reporting heavily damaged crops.
In Northern Indiana and Southern Michigan, many farmers are seeing just the opposite: some crops are growing at near record rates. Livestock are healthy, and dairy cows are producing excellent supplies of milk.
Even so, for Middlebury dairy farmer and Elkhart County Commissioner Mike Yoder, it's been a roller coaster year. Market milk prices have been steadily declining over the last three months, but costs at his Crystal Valley Dairy Farm are way up.
"We've been worried for about six or eight months," he said. "It's put us in a pretty interesting cost-price squeeze in that milk prices are higher [at the grocery store], but there's not enough profit to offset all the increased costs we're experiencing."
Yoder fears the ride is about to get a lot more bumpy.
"Right now we're at a break even point. So, we're watching milk prices pretty close, hoping they turn around and go back up. If they don't, we're losing money," he said.
Unfortunately, he's not all that optimistic. Cattle feed from waterlogged Iowa, Illinois and Southern Indiana now makes up at least 60 percent of his farm's cost structure. And even before the floods hit, he was already paying 30 percent more for the feed than last year due to rising fuel prices.
"I don't think there are any farmers who feel really good about this situation," said Yoder. "Even those [without crop damage] were already in a tight supply situation where prices were elevated slightly. This is just making it worse."
That may be just a drop in the bucket compared to what's on the way. Farmers like Yoder won't be the only ones watching it fill up.
"The price of meat is going to go up. The price of eggs are going to go up, and milk as well," said St. Mary's College Economics Professor Dr. Jerome McElroy.
Some economists predict 10 percent jumps on both beef and poultry and a 30 percent hike in the price of pork by the end of the summer. That's in addition to higher corn, grain and soybean prices that are already driving up the cost of everything from cereal to makeup. Many common household foods and supplies include byproducts from crop fields like Yoder's.
It's another troubling sign for an already unstable economy.
"What they're fearing now is stagflation, which is a simultaneous inflation and recession," said Dr. McElroy. "This is evidence that the supply curve is shifting to the left. And that's bad news for the economy."
America's Gross Domestic Product index continues to grow, though at a very slow rate. The problem is that prices are rising much faster.
Even so, McElroy isn't ready to say this latest hit will send the nation spinning into a recession.
"Think of the economy like a super tanker," he said. "You turn the keel and it takes about three miles to turn. I think that's true of our economy. It really takes a tremendous shock to drive it off course. I don't think this is a big enough shock to do that."
But combine it with other factors, like the rising price of oil, and McElroy says trouble could still be around the corner.
"It's certainly not helping things," he said.
The good news is, there is a simple solution.
"In the long term, the answers are an increase in supply or a curb in demand," he said.
Unfortunately, neither appears likely anytime soon. It remains to be seen whether price hikes at the gas pump or grocery store will make consumers change their spending habits.
If they don't, Yoder says there may only be one solution left.
"There will be rationing going on," he said. "Somebody's going to have to use less."
The big question is, for how long?
Many experts say higher prices and "minimal" food shortages will likely last through the summer and into the fall. But Yoder fears it could stretch even longer than that if next year's crops don't yield a large surplus.
"It could be a year, maybe. Maybe even two years," he said. "This natural disaster is really devastating."
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Friday, Jun 20 at 3:48 PM Anonymous wrote ...
I must have missed the list of all the countries that are comming to aid or in some way help the USA with this big flood disaster. Did anyone else see that list? Now comes the farmers who have made good profits for years, what have you done with all the profits you made in the years previous to the flood?