ELKHART COUNTY — 1,400 local workers will lose their jobs after Monaco Coach closes all its Elkhart County plants. 1,500 other RV workers have also been laid off across Indiana this year. That has some questioning whether the industry itself also faces an uncertain future.

Monaco will close its plants in Elkhart, Wakarusa and Nappanee over the next two months. Many other local RV makers have also cut their workforces, at least temporarily over the last several years.

Is that a sign that the industry itself has fallen on hard times?

RV Business Magazine publisher Sherman Goldenberg isn't so sure.

"It's a sign of the times," he said. "It's a consistent theme of what's going on in America. Is [the RV industry] worse [than other industries]? Maybe by a couple degrees, but no more than that."

Goldenberg points to the auto industry as proof.

Chrysler's second quarter earning estimates, for example, show a 37 percent downturn in 2008. Sales of large, Class A motor homes are down about 40 percent, according to the Recreational Vehicle Industry Association.

Unlike the auto industry, Goldenberg says the RV industry is typically very cyclical. It's one reason why he's joining a growing chorus of analysts who are confident the industry will bounce back.

"Everyone is convinced there will be an RV industry beyond this," he said. "They anticipate a turnaround, and people see signals today. But, the second quarter of 2009, something like that, is when it looks like [a rebound might begin]."

Exactly what type of growth is still being debated.

At International RV World in Elkhart, there's been a noticeable sales shift in recent months.

"The gas and diesel lines have taken a little dive," said salesman Randy Shaffer. "But the fifth wheels are still selling. People will trade [larger diesel motor homes] in and buy a truck and a fifth wheel, because they get a little bit better gas mileage."

Shaffer says the sales trend has been toward smaller, more fuel efficient models.

"Big time," he said.

Goldenberg isn't sold on that either.

"There may be a push toward more fuel efficiency, but in the past, those RV manufacturers who took a chance on [building] smaller motor homes didn't sell any. The American consumer didn't want them," he said.

RV owners like Patricia and Arthur Walsh may help explain why.

While shopping for a new motor home on Friday, they conceded price is a consideration, but size, wasn't an issue.

"We're looking for something used, in very nice condition," Patricia said. "But the economy isn't making us look smaller, no."

When asked if lightweight, or more fuel efficient RV's interest them more due to high fuel prices, she added "not to us, it wouldn't. You want what you want."

Goldenberg says, for most RV buyers, it may not be quite that simple.

"The constant hammering at the gas pump, more than anything else, is making the American consumer, for all kinds of commodities, extremely conservative."

It's one reason why Goldenberg thinks this time the RV industry may have no choice but try going "smaller" again, at least for now.

"It'll take gas to stabilize, and the American consumer to regain his footing," he said. "Right now, the consumer's in a panic, but that panic will pass."

Shaffer agrees.

"I'm not worried. I'm staying positive. This is the third time I've been through this. I've seen it drop before, and it always comes back," he said.

Even with that optimism, Goldenberg and other industry analysts say the problems facing the RV industry will likely get worse before they get better, as consumers keep a close eye on shake ups in the banking industry and housing market.

A recent study from a group of economists at the University of Michigan predicts shipments will "bottom out" in early 2009.