Obama arrives in South Bend amid speculation of Bayh as VP choice

by Troy Kehoe (tkehoe@wsbt.com)

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Obama SUV South Bend Regional Airport

An SUV with presidential candidate Barack Obama leaves South Bend Regional Airport Tuesday night. Obama will hold a town hall meeting Wednesday morning in Elkhart. (WSBT photo by Chad Damp)

SOUTH BEND — Barack Obama touched down at South Bend Airport more than 12 hours before a planned town hall meeting in Elkhart Wednesday morning. The early arrival has sparked yet another round of rumors that he could be prepared to announce Evan Bayh as his choice for vice president sometime soon.

Stage crews finished setting up lights and speakers late Tuesday for Obama's town hall meeting at Concord High School. The Democratic presidential hopeful is expected to talk about America's energy policy and the economy during the event.

He'll share the stage at Concord with a familiar face: Indiana Senator Evan Bayh. But will the two also share the Democratic ticket on the November ballot?

A growing number of political experts are beginning to say "yes."

Senator Obama met with his vice presidential search team in Washington, D.C. for more than three hours Monday, but had nothing to say about the process to reporters as he emerged, according to Reuters and The Associated Press.

A day later, he had landed in South Bend, and again, his press corps was left behind on the tarmac at South Bend airport, waiting without an answer once again to the question on everyone's lips: who will be named as his running mate, and when?

The silence from the Obama camp hasn't stopped the rest of the country from talking.

From The Huffington Post to The Washington Post, columnists, and curious posters are weighing in on who, and when. And for the past five days, there's been one name mentioned more than any other: Evan Bayh.

Even Las Vegas oddsmakers are sitting up to take notice.

The line on wagering websites now shows Bayh and Virginia Governor Tim Kaine at even odds to be named VP.

The biggest unanswered question is, when?

Some headlines read "Obama to name Bayh Wednesday," and they all offer the same evidence.

First, the length of the campaign stop. Obama, his campaign staff, and his traveling national press corps are scheduled to be in the South Bend area for more than 21 hours, with no other announced events on the schedule for the day following the early morning town hall meeting in Elkhart.

Second, there's the jointly penned letter to Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and subsequent press release sent by the two Senators on Monday.

Then there's the sudden cancellation of a Bayh's staff softball game Wednesday, the team name, in another coincidence, is the "Bayh Partisans."

There are the websites www.obamabayh.com and www.obamabayh08.com, that link directly to the Democratic Party's homepage. Similar links for other rumored "VP front-runners" lead nowhere.

But the biggest theory keeping the rumor mill churning goes something like this: Senator Obama doesn't want his announcement to be overshadowed by anything. Thus, he'll want to announce his pick before the Olympics start on Friday.

Will he choose Elkhart as the venue? Those close to his campaign staff aren't so sure.

"I think the chances are very slim tomorrow," said St. Joseph County Democratic Party Chairman Owen "Butch" Morgan, who also serves as Democratic Party Chairman for Indiana's Second Congressional District. "I think we would have heard by now that was in the works. I hope I'm wrong. But, I don't think there's going to be a vice presidential announcement [Wednesday]."

Even Senator Bayh himself tried to quell the rumors Tuesday.

According to The Indianapolis Star, Bayh said he has "no idea" when Obama will announce his running mate.

"I'm absolutely confident there will be no announcement tomorrow. I guess the best way to put it is, If there's an announcement tomorrow, I'd be as surprised as anybody else," Bayh told the newspaper.

WSBT's calls to Bayh's Communications office were not returned Tuesday.

Bayh's Communications Director Eric Kleiman told WSBT on Sunday that, while Senator Bayh planned to attend Wednesday's meeting in Elkhart, he was unaware of any further private meetings between the two. He also said he'd heard nothing of a planned announcement about Obama's running mate.

Political experts say, if the announcement of Bayh doesn't come Wednesday, that doesn't mean it never will.

"One of the things modern campaigns do is float 'trial balloons," said Indiana University South Bend Political Science Professor Elizabeth Bennion. "They'll see how energized the public gets, not just in Indiana, but in other states as well. The party and his campaign is no doubt, running some polls behind the scenes to see how various vice presidential picks would increase or decrease [Obama's] chances in November. So, I'm sure part of this could be that trial balloon."

"I see it as a chance for people to see Senator Obama and Senator Bayh together. Maybe that will help Senator Obama make his decision," agreed Morgan.

Still, Bennion and others agree that there could be potential negatives if Obama chooses Bayh.

He was a staunch supporter of Hillary Clinton's campaign for president, and backed Obama only after she dropped out.

"You can bet the campaign is going through every word Senator Bayh said, making sure there was nothing bad said about Obama. The last thing they want is for something to come out [that he said] once he's selected, and then it becomes a 30 second spot on TV," Bennion said.

Morgan is certain they won't find any.

"They're friends," he said. "[Bayh] spoke about Obama being a good choice for president every time he mentioned Hillary Clinton."

Bennion says there are potential positives to Bayh's selection, too.

"On the other hand, [selecting Bayh] could be seen as reaching out to the white working class or other Clinton supporters. He could help deliver those votes," she said.

One thing that likely won't play, though, is geographic location.

Senator Obama is from neighboring Illinois.

"For many years, political scientists would teach the importance of regional balancing and looking at the ticket, not having people from the same area. But look at the Clinton-Gore ticket. Look at the Bush-Cheney ticket. That kind of went out the window. They didn't need the same sort of regional balancing. It seems to be much less important than it was in days past," Bennion said.

That's led Morgan to a simple conclusion, whether it comes on Wednesday or not.

"My gut tells me there's a real good chance it's going to be Evan Bayh," he said.

There are two more likely indications that the announcement will not be made in Elkhart.

Both Senators' families are not scheduled to be there, according to the Associated Press.

Some national press outlets are also planning not to broadcast the town hall meeting "live."

If the announcement doesn't come in the next two days, Bennion says, it's likely Obama will wait until the days immediately preceding the Democratic National Convention at the end of August.

Republican Presidential hopeful John McCain, meanwhile, may still consider Indiana a "safe" state, she said.

Indiana has only gone to a Democratic presidential candidate once since 1936. The state's electoral votes were cast for Democrat Lyndon Johnson in 1964.

Because of that, it's been rare for presidential candidates to make campaign stops in the Hoosier state.

Bennion says that may change this year if polling data continues to show Indiana as a "swing state."

If that's the case, it's likely we'll be seeing a lot more of both Obama and McCain in the weeks and months ahead.

Doors for Obama's town hall event at Concord High School open at 7:30 a.m. Obama is expected to speak around 9:30 a.m. Tickets are required to attend the meeting.

You can also watch the entire event live by clicking the link on the front page of www.wsbt.com.

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