SOUTH BEND — It's down to crunch time for next year's budget. But, with just 3 weeks left to hammer out the spending plan, exactly what might be cut remains unclear. City leaders now say it's likely that will remain the case well into the new year.

The reason, they reason, is simple.

"We still do not have a certified budget for 2008," said South Bend Mayor Steve Luecke (D). "It's the end of October. That's goofy."

But it's also reality. And city leaders say it's left them with only one realistic option.

Instead of including cuts in next year's budget when it's put up for a vote on November 10th, the city will take a different approach.

"The [2009 budget] is going to be a baseline budget, and then we come back [to revisit it next year] because of a number of factors. We don't have the tax rate for this year. So, we need to fill in some of those unknown variables to really know what kind of estimates are we looking at next year," said South Bend City Controller Catherine Fanello.

The other major unknown variable is the potential impact from Indiana's new property tax caps.

City leaders estimate it could reach as deep as an $8.5 million loss in revenue in 2009 and an $18 million loss in 2010.

But until those tax rates are finalized, no one will know for sure.

And with the clock now ticking toward a budget deadline, city leaders say they only have one option left: copy this year's spending plan and cut later.

"We need some more information before we go and start cutting things that we may not need to cut," said Fanello.

But that plan will leave the future of a number of city programs and employees in limbo.

City funded after school programs, parks and pools, curb and sidewalk rehab programs could all face cuts.

Dozens of city employees — including police officers and fire fighters — could be laid off.

But, exactly how many, and when?

"It's all on the table. It's not going away. We have to take the first quarter of 2009 and then make those final decisions," Fanello said.

"When you don't have all the numbers, it makes it difficult to do [make a final plan now]," added Mayor Luecke.

Even so, the city is still working to trim spending now where it can, said Fanello.

All city owned cell phones will be eliminated next month, in favor of a plan to allow cell phone spending allowances for what Fanello called "critical" city employees. The city hopes to have the switch completed by the end of the year.

Many city owned "take home" employee vehicles will also be taken away, though a select few will remain. Employees who drive their own vehicles on a regular basis while on city business will be compensated on a "per mile" basis, Fanello said.

Police take home squad cars will not be eliminated under the program.

"The baseline budget really looks at sustaining most of the services we've had in 2008," Luecke said. "But we're still looking for new ways to become more efficient and we're still looking for new revenue."

Even so, Fanello says it's highly unlikely that the city's tax estimates are off by so much that deep cuts can be avoided beginning early next year.

"Come January, we're going to have some serious work to do," she said.

The Common Council's Personnel and Finance Committee will meet again to discuss the baseline budget before the planned vote on November 10th. A time and date for that meeting has not been set yet.