SOUTH BEND — With unusually warm temperatures, it's hard to believe it's November. But it is — and that means winter is almost here.

So far this month South Bend is running 65 total degrees above normal. However, a warm start to November has nothing to do with the rest of the winter.

Looking back, two of the most harsh winters on record in this area, 1977-78 and 1981-82, both had similarly warm starts to November.

One way to predict our winter is to look at a place where winter has already started: Alaska.

Weather maps of that area show just how far below normal temperatures have been since October 1. The snowfall totals are also running way above normal. This cold air will eventually dive south into the lower 48 states and that's key to winter in this area of the country.

Last winter was influenced by what is called La Nina, which is the cooling of waters in the Pacific Ocean. That creates extreme conditions like last winter. There was heavy snow one week, record flooding the next week.

Neither La Nina, nor its counterpart El Nino, will be a factor for South Bend this winter.

Something that will be a factor is the huge amount of rain this fall. Since September 1, the total is 17.25 inches. That is over nine inches above normal, which makes this the wettest fall on record.

Only one year comes close to matching the current weather pattern: the fall of 1977. That year there was 16.38 inches of rain. The winter ended up as the snowiest one ever with 172" of snow.

Another reason this area could experience a snowy winter this year is the trend of the past few winters.

Snowfall in 2005-06 was 38 inches. The following winter, 64.5" of snow fell, and last winter the snowfall total was 76.5". There's no reason to believe the trend won't continue this year.

Therefore, my prediction for snowfall this winter is 91" — over a foot above the normal snowfall for a winter.