Holiday retailers' loss could be shoppers' gain

by Troy Kehoe (tkehoe@wsbt.com)

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Shoppers, including Bette Zagorski, of Peabody, Mass., center, make their way through the isles the discount retailer Target, Monday, Nov. 17, 2008 in Danvers, Mass. Target Corp. said Monday that a difficult retail environment and weak results from its credit-card segment led to a 24 percent decline in third-quarter earnings. (AP Photo/Lisa Poole)

By WSBT News1

MISHAWAKA — 'Tis the season to save, and if holiday shopping is on your list, there's some good news. Economic forecasts have an increasing number of retailers saying "Bah-Humbug!"

For shoppers, things are suddenly turning merry and bright. There's a simple reason why.

If retailers can get you in their doors, they know there's a good chance you'll open your wallet and spend. That means great deals are suddenly everywhere you look. They're also coming out earlier than ever before.

It's all creating a new rally cry from shoppers across America.

"We're making it small this year. Less presents and more budget shopping," said Kim Onax of South Bend.

As the cost of daily life continues to go up, many household budgets are dropping.

Just ask Melissa Varga.

Her husband joined more than 1,400 other workers who lost their jobs when Monaco Coach shut down its plants in Elkhart County.

Now, the Osceola mother is one of an estimated 70% of Americans whose holiday plans have suddenly changed.

"We will be strictly using cash," she said. "And, if it's not on sale, it's not getting bought!"

It may sound strange, but that's the very reason why she was out shopping at University Park Mall in Mishawaka on Tuesday afternoon, ready to spend money.

"Usually, I'm a day after Thanksgiving, closer to Christmas kind of [shopper]," she said. "[But, I'm starting earlier this year.] We've already started!"

She's not alone.

According to the National Retail Federation, 40% of Americans planned to start their holiday shopping before Halloween. 60% plan to start before Thanksgiving.

It's unusual to see figures that high before the traditional holiday shopping season even starts.

You didn't have to look far beyond Melissa's surroundings to figure out why.

With "Black Friday" still more than a week away, many stores have already extended their hours.

Department stores like Macy's are already staying open until midnight as they advertise their "biggest sale of the year."

Previously, that designation was reserved until after Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving. It's generally the biggest shopping day of the year, and the time when most retailers offer their deepest discounts.

And they still will.

Disney Stores across the country even plan to open at midnight on Black Friday morning to give shoppers an early jump on sales.

But you don't have to wait until then to save.

At malls across America, including University Park, sign after sign already bear slogans like "free giveaway," "exclusive offer," or "entire store on sale."

Those that don't have the signs above, instead have signs offering discounts of 25%-70% on selected merchandise.

It's a new approach for retailers.

"This is the first time we've heard of that they've done a store-wide [sale] before a major deal like the day after Thanksgiving," said University Park Disney Store Assistant Manager Ron Christiana. "It gives people a little bit of a head start on their holiday shopping and a better chance to get the deals they really hoped for."

It's a risk to offer so much at so little.

But IU South Bend Economics Professor Grant Black says it just might pay off.

"This is probably one of the weakest [sales forecasts] we've seen in a decade. They've got to entice people into their stores. And one way to do that is with bigger sales," Black said.

The National Retail Federation predicts a growth in holiday sales this year of just over 2% from last year. Other surveys put the numbers closer to 1% growth, barely outpacing the rate of inflation.

"Consumer spending has decreased in the last several quarters, which is an extremely rare event. And having weak holiday sales in this climate can really hurt retailers much more," Black says.

The move to discount now could be one attempt by retailers to salvage at least some of the expected losses.

"Traditionally, you would have seen sales a lot closer into the holiday season. Starting that earlier can help prolong profits and entice people into the stores. Once you get someone in to purchase something [on sale], the likelihood of them purchasing something else that may not [be on sale] can increase," Black said.

It all adds up to good news for savvy shoppers.

"It means you're really going to be able to find some good deals if you shop around," Black said.

Many shoppers will.

According to that National Retail Federation study, 70% of those surveyed said they'd be watching for sales before making any purchases.

All of those savings percentages in store windows have an effect on another percentage, too.

70% of the economy is driven by consumer spending. If money isn't flowing through the nation's retailers, it's not flowing through the economy either, and that means there's little hope of emerging from the current recession.

It's one reason why retail sales hit their lowest level in 40 years last month, as shoppers like Melissa tightened their purse strings.

"If it's not on sale, and not on a good sale, we just can't," she said. "The money's not there!"

Now, she shares the same hopes as retailers: that mark downs will help bring up their bottom line, and in turn, the economy, by turning new "sales" into store sales.

"There's going to be lots of great deals," said Christiana. "We all hope that everyone will capitalize on that."

Retailers are also hoping that the Internet will help them capitalize on untapped sales. Online purchases during the holiday season are expected to rise by 8% from last year, according to the NRF study.

A study released last week from Purdue University suggests the boost may be closer to 10%, as 135 million consumers spend a total of $35 billion to $40 billion.

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