StormTracking the summer

By Rick Mecklenburg (rick@wsbt.com)

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StormTracking the summer

A harsh winter has many in Michiana wondering what summer has in store. (WSBT photo)

By Beth Boehne

Story Created: Apr 23, 2009 at 1:39 PM EST

Story Updated: Apr 29, 2009 at 10:59 AM EST

Summer is just around the corner. But what kind of summer will it be? To answer that, we first need to look at this past winter.

A weary winter’s end

There is no question we have ended a real winter, with plenty of snow and extremely cold temperatures. The snow total was 77.2 inches, and this means we had a little more snow than normal.

There was plenty of cold air as well. In fact, temperatures were at one point as cold as 19 below. Because of this harsh winter, a lot of people are looking forward to summer.

South Bend summers

There have been some brutally hot summers around here. A lot of people remember 1988, when there were 44 days with highs of at least 90. On the other hand, some of the summers have been cool. In 2004, there was only one day in the 90s that entire year!

I believe this summer will not be extreme at all.

A check of the records shows that cold and snowy winters are usually followed by fairly normal summers.

I found seven winters similar to this one over the past 30 years. In those seven summers, the average number of days with high temperatures of at least 90 was 11, and this is fairly close to an average summer.

Something that struck me though, while I was doing some research is that it has been 10 years since South Bend had a high of 100. On July 30, 1999, the high was 102 degrees. What's interesting about that is that the winter prior to that 102-degree high was very similar to the one that just ended, at least in terms of snowfall.

Severe weather

Not only is summer hot at times, it is also stormy. Last summer was relatively free of severe weather, and I think this year will be as well. Of course, there is severe weather every summer, but there is no sign this year will be any worse than others.

That trend has held true for the rest of the country so far this year as well.

In fact, according to the Storm Prediction Center, by the end of April last year, there had already been almost 550 tornadoes in the country. This year, the number is closer to 350. Thankfully, the number of tornado-related deaths are also down. By late April 2008, there were 70 deaths. To date this year, 14 people have died.

Drought

Another thing that sometimes happens in summer is drought. So far this year, the precipitation total is over 12 inches, and that is over two inches above normal. This is a good situation to be in as the growing season starts.

There is also no signal that we will be getting dry anytime soon, so that could bode very well for the crops and plants this growing season.

My forecast

So with all this in mind, I am forecasting a wetter than normal summer with eight days with high temperatures of at least 90 degrees.

Read Rick's weather blog!

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