SOUTH BEND — Mayor Steve Luecke is defending a list of proposed cuts released Tuesday that outline the future of city services if a Local Option Income Tax increase is not approved by the end of the month.

The question now: will city leaders support the plan to keep them from becoming reality?

The list of cuts add up to about 27% of the city's total budget, Luecke said during a news conference Thursday. They stem from estimates that South Bend will lose $22 million in property tax revenue due to Indiana's recently enacted property tax caps.

But, some are now questioning how realistic those scenarios really are if the income tax hike fails.

The list includes more than 200 layoffs--about 15% of the city's total workforce, including 19 police officers, 45 firefighters and 28 full-time Parks Department workers.

Luecke called the numbers "regrettable, but realistic" if local leaders don't pass the income tax hike soon.

"We recognize that it's a difficult time to look at raising taxes. It's a tough time for many families in our communities. But, it's also a tough time to look at reducing important services," Luecke said.

The Mayor went on to say public hearings two months ago told the city what needed to be done.

"We heard from them that they like the services we provide; that they wanted us to continue to provide those services at the same or increased levels," Luecke said.

To do that, Luecke introduced a new LOIT increase proposal earlier this week. It's even higher than the one considered late last year.

The latest proposal include the same 0.5% LOIT hike and the same 0.25% public safety tax as the proposal South Bend Common Council members approved in a 6-3 votes last December. But, this one also tacks on a 0.2% economic development tax known as CEDIT.

The increase would raise about $16 million per year in revenue for the city, Luecke said, cutting the deficit in 2010 to about $6 million.

South Bend already cut $3 million from 2009's budget, and underspent by $4 million during 2008's budget, Luecke said. That was accomplished, in part, he added, by laying off 121 city employees, many through attrition.

For a family earning St. Joseph County's median income of $41,565 a year, the proposed 0.95% LOIT increase adds up to a $329 yearly boost in local income taxes.

Some we spoke with said the LOIT hike is a "good deal" if it helps keep the city safe.

"I think that's acceptable, and I think the Mayor is being realistic," said Charlotte Klein of South Bend. "What can he do? He has to get the money from somewhere."

"I think it's important that we do keep a certain level of tax to keep the city running," agreed Sean Coech of Mishawaka. "It's worth it to me."

But, others are more skeptical.

"I think that's a scare tactic," said Joyce Schafer of Lakeville. "To have the protection from police and firemen I think is important. But, without knowing for sure where all the money was going, I would say no."

"I don't want to see any [police and firefighters] go, but it sounds like scare tactics," agreed Tony Dutka of South Bend.

"This is not a scare tactic," Luecke said. "We're being honest with our constituents about what it costs to run local government. We've tried to talk about this for several years so that no one would be surprised by it."

In most cases, state law doesn't specify how local governments must set staffing levels--including for police and fire departments. That, some say, means the cuts are a realistic option without the hikes.

"I think we have no choice but to support [the LOIT increase]," said South Bend Firefighters IAFF Local 362 President Kenneth Marks. "If we lose one person, that's one too many."

The alternative, Marks says, is a devastated fire department, missing one of its key components.

"It would be the end of the ambulance program as we know it. The people that operate the ambulances are primarily paramedics and advanced EMTs. Those are mostly new hires. So, if you got rid of 45 firefighters, you'd cripple the ambulance program," Marks said.

"You would lay off the younger people, and those are the paramedics," agreed Gene Goddard, Board Chairman of the Indiana Association of Firefighters. "And then, the chances of more fatalities is much more prevalent. It's got to be a concern, not only for the firefighters, but also for the public."

Standards set by the National Firefighters Association include recommendations about staffing levels and the number of fire stations needed to operate in specifically sized cities.

Luecke's recommended cuts include the closure or reduced staffing of some fire stations during certain periods of the week.

"Those are only recommendations, however, not [legal] standards," Goddard said. "But, we can't do without basic life safety. I don't think we're willing to give that up."

South Bend's Fraternal Order of Police Lodge 36 "officially" supports the LOIT increase, too. But, union leaders say they believe it's not the only viable solution.

"I think there's a lot of places that could be trimmed or cut first before we start laying police officers off," said Lt. Scott Ruszkowski, FOP 36 President. "There's a lot of things our members have come up with as cost saving or cost cutting measures, and I think they're great ideas. We brought some of them up during our last bargaining session, and we don't even know if they made it to the Mayor's desk."

FOP leaders will begin contract negotiations with the city again on Tuesday.

"As a taxpayer, I can tell you that the FOP members, including myself, are not in favor of [a LOIT increase.] But, from the FOP perspective, to have men and women keep their jobs? Absolutely. The FOP is in full support," Ruszkowski said.

The question now: will it even come to that?

Both the city and county councils are scheduled to discuss the tax hike proposal next week--South Bend Common Council members on Monday and St. Joseph County Councilmen on Tuesday.

It will take approval from both councils to enact the LOIT hike, unless Mishawaka's common council steps in to give their approval, which Luecke acknowledged is unlikely.

If the votes are "yes," revenue would begin to trickle in early next year.
If it's "no," Luecke says layoffs could begin as early as October.

"We are at that day of reckoning now," Luecke said. "If the tax isn't enacted before the end of the month--we won't have those revenues for 2010."