ST. JOSEPH COUNTY ― The economic downturn meant a drop in enrollment numbers this year, and an analyst forecasts the Penn-Harris-Madison school district could lose 100 students each year for the next 10 years.

During his daily walks around the neighborhood, Larry Wittenbrink sees signs of the season.

"The younger people put out a lot of Halloween decorations," Wittenbrink said. "The older people like us put out just a couple of things."

He also sees signs of the times, like a home for sale in the Quail Ridge development in St. Joseph County.

Wittenbrink said seeing “for sale” signs in the neighborhood is uncommon.

"We haven't seen much turnover as far as families," he said. "The little kids stay, and the families without kids stay."

It's the reason enrollment numbers at Penn-Harris-Madison schools were projected to drop.

"We knew there was going to be a slight decline, but the decline has been accelerated," said Superintendent Jerry Thacker

A recent enrollment forecast showed no signs of slowing down. The district was projected to lose 100 students per year for the next decade.

Thacker is paying close attention to Prairie Vista, Bittersweet and nine other elementary schools in the 140-square-mile district. This year alone, kindergarten through fifth grade started with 150 fewer students.

If enrollment declines continue, it could have a negative effect on revenue.

"We're going to have a small cohort enrolling in the future," Thacker said.

It could also lead to a reduction in the share of state funding, an estimated $6,000 per student.

"It does stretch us a bit more," he said.

It's one reason why administrators are looking at the forecast closely ― to determine ways now that will protect the district's reputation in the years to come.