Winter weather? Almanac says 'Numb's the word!'

By JERRY HARKAVY, Associated Press Writer

Tools

By Beth Boehne

LEWISTON, Maine (AP) — People worried about the high cost of keeping warm this winter will draw little comfort from the Farmers' Almanac, which predicts below-average temperatures for most of the U.S.

"Numb's the word," says the 192-year-old publication, which claims an accuracy rate of 80 to 85 percent for its forecasts that are prepared two years in advance.

The almanac's 2009 edition, which goes on sale Tuesday, says at least two-thirds of the country can expect colder-than-average temperatures this winter, with only the Far West and Southeast in line for near-normal readings.

"This is going to be catastrophic for millions of people," said almanac editor Peter Geiger.

The almanac predicts above-normal snowfall for the Great Lakes and Midwest, especially during January and February, and above-normal precipitation for the Southwest in December and for the Southeast in January and February. The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions will likely have an unusually wet or snowy February, the almanac said.

In contrast, the usually wet Pacific Northwest could be a bit drier than normal in February.

Looking ahead to summer, the almanac foresees near-normal temperatures in most places. But much of the Southwest should prepare for unusually hot weather in June and July, while Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas will get oppressive July heat and humidity.

The almanac — not to be confused with the New Hampshire-based Old Farmer's Almanac which is 26 years older — attributes its forecasts to reclusive prognosticator Caleb Weatherbee, who uses a secret formula based on sunspots, the position of the planets and the tidal action of the moon.

Weatherbee's outlook is borne out by e-mails the almanac has received in recent days from readers who have spotted signs of nature they say point to a rough winter, Geiger said. These folklore signs range from an abundance of acorns already on the ground to the frequency of fog in August.

The almanac is at odds with the National Weather Service, whose trends-based outlook calls for warmer than normal weather this winter over much of the country, including Alaska, said Ed O'Lenic, chief of the operations branch at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. The almanac and the weather service are in sync, however, in pointing to a chance of a drier winter in the Northwest.

O'Lenic wouldn't comment specifically on the almanac's ability to forecast the weather two years from now, but said it's generally impossible to come up with accurate forecasts more than a week in advance.

"Of course it's possible to prepare a forecast with any lead time you like. Whether or nor that forecast has any accuracy or usable skill is another question," he said.

Geiger sticks to his guns, saying the almanac was on target in the 2008 edition when it said the Northeast and the Great Lakes would have a long, cold winter with lots of snow.

The almanac claims a circulation of about 3½ million. Most are sold to banks, insurance companies and other businesses that give them away. Other versions are sold by retailers in the U.S. and Canada.

Circulation has dropped in recent years, a reflection of a trend that affects many print publications. The almanac has been increasing emphasis on its Web site and also offers a half-hour program that airs weekly on about 90 percent of the nation's public television stations.

However, some aspects of the almanac never change. The 2009 retail edition has the usual mix of helpful hints, recipes, gardening tips, riddles, anecdotes, corny jokes and inspirational messages.

If there's a theme to this year's almanac, it's environmental awareness, frugality and living a sustainable life. There are articles on water conservation, gas-sipping motor scooters, natural cures and preventions for colds and other illnesses, and on growing food without a yard.

___

On the Net:

Almanac: http://www.farmersalmanac.com/

Friday, Nov 7 at 6:07 AM AMEN, I DO. wrote ...

Global Warming is a LIE. Last year the so-called "ozone hole" closed completely. Where was the media? .07 degrees in 100 years? WoW! I am worried. It's all BS.

Tuesday, Aug 26 at 8:26 AM I Do. wrote ...

I understand global warming. I understand that when we have only a .07 percent increase in temperature in the last 100 years that there is no such thing as global warming.

Monday, Aug 25 at 8:14 PM rick wrote ...

it seems that some people do not understand the concept of global warming, much like the bush administration.

Monday, Aug 25 at 5:18 PM rick wrote ...

i coulod have told you it was going to be a bad winter 2 weeks ago. some of the trees in my neighborhood in niles were already changing color.

Monday, Aug 25 at 3:02 PM Mike wrote ...

Farmer's almanac says a cold winter is coming; National Weather Service forecast says warm. Historically the Almanac, which claims 80% accuracy, is in reality no better than a guess while National Weather Service has a better track record. The real forecast? Wait until March and we'll know for certain!

Monday, Aug 25 at 1:28 PM nicole wrote ...

it may be bad for some but i am happy for a cold and snowy winter i love it

Monday, Aug 25 at 8:42 AM pavi wrote ...

Wait wait wait, stop the press. We have global warming, didn't anyone tell the Almanc people. Somebody needs to tell Macain, NO Bama, or Alony Gore so they can tell the Almanc that the earth is on fire...

Monday, Aug 25 at 1:45 AM bjk100 wrote ...

the warm winter we had last year was predicted by the walnut tree in my yard not producing many nuts.. they are back in bulk this year and larger than last year. the squirls are already breaking them open and stashing them away. the shells are all over my walk. Now i am looking for willy worms and wasps nests to see how high the snow will be.Old timers werent all wrong!

Add a comment

Name:

Comment: 500 Characters Left

Comments are moderated and will not appear on this story until after they have been reviewed and deemed appropriate for posting.

WSBT and its affiliated companies are not responsible for the content of comments posted or for anything arising out of use of the above comments or other interaction among the users. We reserve the right to screen, refuse to post, remove or edit user-generated content at any time and for any or no reason in our absolute and sole discretion without prior notice, although we have no duty to do so or to monitor any Public Forum.

WSBT Weather

icon
Current Temp 21
°
More Weather
More On Demand

Stock Quotes

This content requires the latest Adobe Flash Player and a browser with JavaScript enabled. Click here for a free download of the latest Adobe Flash Player.

Tonight On WSBTFull Schedule

7.00
Wheel of Fortune
7.30
Jeopardy!
8.00
NCIS
9.00
The Mentalist
10.00
Without A Trace
11.00
WSBT News
11.35
Late Show with David Letterman

Question of The Day

When was the last time you bought a car?

E-mail your comments. We'll pick some to read during WSBT News at 5.

  • Yes
  • No