In a classic piece of counter-programming, Texas Gov. Rick Perry is declaring his presidential intentions this weekend in South Carolina while the Republican political world is focused on Iowa for Thursday night's debate and Saturday's Ames straw poll.
Though that should ensure Perry a prominent piece of the weekend political story, his prospects may be affected more by how the Ames event helps define the GOP field he's about to join than by his one-upsmanship.
That's because the winner in Ames, expected to be either Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota or that state's former governor, Tim Pawlenty, instantly becomes the candidate for Perry to beat in this winter's Iowa caucuses.
In recent weeks, Bachmann has emerged as the leading candidate for support from the GOP's powerful religious conservative wing, which is especially strong in Iowa and South Carolina - and from which Perry also expects significant backing.
Ironically, his chances of becoming shaky front-runner Mitt Romney's top GOP rival might well improve if Bachmann wins the Ames straw poll.
Why? Widespread doubts she could ultimately win the nomination.
By contrast, despite Pawlenty's lackluster campaigning, fundraising problems and lack of a firm political base, many Republican handicappers see him as a more acceptable backup choice if Romney falters as he did four years ago in Iowa and the New Hampshire primary.
To get there, however, Pawlenty needs success this weekend in Ames.
Considering his extensive Iowa campaigning and organizing, his failure to finish first - or perhaps a close second - could be fatal.
Likewise, Bachmann almost certainly needs to win in Ames to sustain her swelling support in Republican polls after a strong performance in June in the first major GOP debate in New Hampshire.
But even if she did, her slim public record, rigid ideology and propensity for self-damaging comments probably still doom her when the race moves to larger states with a broader ideological spectrum of Republicans.
Significantly, she has already dropped behind the still-unannounced Perry in some national GOP polls.
Perry's strength is combining Bachmann's strong conservative ideology with the practical governing experience of the three former governors in the race: Romney, Pawlenty and Jon Huntsman. Pawlenty might provide that, too, but he remains far less known than the governor of the nation's second-biggest state.
As for Perry, he is showing intentions of competing in both New Hampshire and Iowa with stops there this weekend.
But the linchpin of Perry's candidacy will be South Carolina, the state where aides say he will signal his intention to run Saturday at a conservative bloggers convention. It's the first Southern test; he's the main Southern candidate.
And it's the state every ultimate GOP nominee has won since its first presidential primary in 1980.
Carl P. Leubsdorf is the former Washington bureau chief of the Dallas Morning News. Readers may write to him via e-mail at: carl.p.leubsdorf@gmail.com.
